Every Critical Ecosystem is on a Pathway to Collapse

The title of this article is not activist alarmism. That's Key Judgement 4 from a UK Government national security assessment titled Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security, quietly released on the gov.uk site without fanfare (originally suppressed last October).

The confidence level: High.

The Key Judgements (paraphrased with original confidence ratings)

1. Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity. We're already seeing crop failures, intensified disasters, and disease outbreaks. Threats will worsen. High
2. Cascading risks include geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflict, migration, and resource competition. Moderate
3. Critical ecosystems supporting major global food production and regulating climate/water/weather are most vital for the UK. Collapse would trigger water insecurity, slashed crop yields, fisheries collapse, weather shifts, massive carbon release, novel diseases, and loss of pharma resources. Amazon, Congo, boreal forests, Himalayas, SE Asia coral reefs & mangroves are particularly significant. High
4. Every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse (irreversible loss of function beyond repair). Degradation is happening across all regions. High
5. Realistic possibility some start collapsing from 2030 (SE Asia corals, boreal forests) and others from 2050(rainforests, mangroves). Low (due to complex feedbacks and data gaps)
6. All countries are exposed; some will face it sooner and may securitise resources (especially food/water). Moderate
7. Without major resilience upgrades, the UK cannot maintain food security amid global competition. We import ~40% of food (heavy reliance on fruit/veg, soy, palm oil, fertiliser). We can't currently feed ourselves on current diets/land use. Moderate

Why this is explosive

This isn't an NGO report or IPCC summary. It's a JIC/Defra national security assessment using intelligence uncertainty frameworks (probability yardstick + analytical confidence ratings). It assesses a reasonable worst-case scenario but bases the "pathway to collapse" call on robust scientific trends.

The report explicitly notes planetary boundaries: six already crossed, including biosphere integrity (biodiversity), land use, climate, freshwater, nutrients, and novel entities.

Collapse means tipping points — e.g., Amazon at ~20-25% deforestation + warming/fire (currently ~17-18% degraded). Once crossed, systems flip (rainforest → savanna; coral → algae-dominated). Restoration becomes far harder or impossible for some (corals, Himalayas glaciers).

National security implications the government is admitting:

• Migration: Food/water insecurity reverses development gains; +1% food insecurity → ~1.9% more migration pressure;
• Conflict & instability: Competition for arable land, fisheries, water; exacerbation of existing wars; non-state actors/terrorism/SOC exploiting chaos;
• Pandemics: Novel zoonoses from degraded interfaces;
• Economic hit: UK ecosystem services valued at £87bn/year (~3% GDP); global economy built on finite nature (we're using 1.6 Earths already);
• UK-specific: Food supply chain shock. Collapse in multiple breadbaskets = price spikes, potential import restrictions, diet changes, or shortages.

The report is clear: protecting/restoring ecosystems is easier, cheaper, and more reliable than tech silver bullets (which need massive unproven scaling).

Read the (partial) document yourself. Demand the full unredacted version – the released one lacks detailed geo-regional analysis and per-ecosystem impact breakdowns referenced in the scope.

This is what "national security" looks like when nature is finally taken seriously.

We're not "saving the planet." We're trying to prevent our own systems from collapsing alongside the ecosystems we depend on.

The government has now put that in writing.

Time to act on it.